Just after launching your kickstarter, there are a few tools available built to predict the final outcome of your crowdfunding campaign.
The first and most well-known is Kicktraq. Through their own algorithm, they can show an exact figure where your campaign is trending to. Here’s for instance a $793,885 prediction for The City of Titans video games kickstarter:
Kicktraq’s idea is that Kickstarter campaigns follow a pattern for pleges: a massive influx of contributions in the first 3 days, followed by a plateau where the project gets less popular, and another peak of popularity towards the end. Of course, there are a few exceptions, such as projects that get featured by Kickstarter and then get hundreds of contributors in a day, or campaigns that get a second life through rapid improvements, but Kicktraq has been quite on spot for most kickstarters.
The graph is updated whenever there’s a new pledge on the campaign, and as time passes by. For campaigns that don’t get contributions, the trending figure slowly decreases overtime. For project creators and for fans backing a project, Kicktraq is a great tool that alerts them if they are inline with objectives or if they are falling back. If you are interested, Kicktraq also provides a handy browser extension for Firefox or Chrome that will insert the graphic right into Kickstarter, when you check out projects, so you don’t even have to search on Kicktraq.
Kicktraq’s team is active on their blog and as well on websites such as reddit. Check it out!
Another recent tool is SideKick. Vincent Essier, the tool’s creator, modelized Kickstarter, by taking into account the number of tweets about the project (as well as retweets and replies), the number of pledges, and many other factors to statistically predict the outcome of the project. Unlike Kicktraq though, it doesn’t give a figure but the real-time estimated probability of success.
Sidekick has handy features such as sorting through goals, remaining, % of funding, chances of success. I can see Sidekick as a tool of reference for project creators who are looking for the best in category, when they’re looking to crowdfund soon, and much later on, as a reference when they launch.
Sidekick also shows an insightful page showing overall success rate by category, total amassed by category. Currently, video games are the most successful with around $71k on average, while the poetry category only gets $1800. Video games is also the only category where the average successful funding goal is higher than the average failed funding goals.
Crowdufunding can be very complex and stressful and tools like Kicktraq or Sidekick can tell you very quickly where you are heading. Although they can’t tell you exactly why people are not contributing, they can save you hours in sleepless night, and in the case of sidekick, perhaps do a better preparation of your campaign through analysis of the best performers in your category.
What do you think? Would they help you in your crowdfunding campaign? Comment below or send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to discuss